What Macron is banking on now

No majority and a ‘stalled period’ of technocratic government

AFP via Getty Images

The most interesting piece I have read on the French snap legislative election is this interview with Macron’s economy and finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, published five days ago in Le Point. Bruno Le Maire is himself an interesting figure, a novelist who last year faced criticism from the only boring people in France, the extreme left, for publishing his 13^th (apparently racy) book while the country was experiencing “big worries about inflation”.

Inflation is now the least of Le Maire’s worries, or indeed France’s, and I suspect that soon he will not have to concern himself with questions of the economy at all. In fact, he says as much in the interview, stating that in the event of a defeat of the majority at the ballot box, he would first take some time away from politics and then return seeking a radically different political role “leading the fight in the cultural battle to revive a France that would fall neither into Islamism nor wokism”.

Whether or not this indicates some future defection to the so called ‘far-right’ is for the moment not of interest. What is more important, and indeed crystal clear, is that these are the words of a man who knows that his days as economy and finance minister are numbered, and one who knows exactly why. While campaigning in Saône-et-Loire last week, Le Maire had an exchange with a pharmacist that he remains “haunted by”. “You saved me economically, of course”, the local said, “but the next day I was attacked with a knife. What is the point?”.

Le Maire’s days are also numbered because of Macron himself, and following the president’s dissolution of parliament, Le Maire castigated (without naming) Macron’s advisors as cloportes or ‘woodlice’ eating away at the “parquet floors of the palaces of the Republic”. He most likely had Bruno Roger-Petit and ex-Sarkozy senator Pierre Charron in mind, who are said to have been the architects of the dissolution, but Le Maire may as well have just cut to the chase and denounced Macron because the man appointed his lice, and he took their advice. When questioned on this by Le Point: “Has Emmanuel Macron become a problem?” Le Maire was quick to clarify what he meant by ‘woodlice’:

“Let's not reduce a historical period to one man! […] I'm not trying to stand out, I'm trying to bring people together. The "woodlice" refers to what I have been denouncing for years: this technocratic monarchy that surreptitiously took power in France. Advisors advise, political leaders decide, period.”

This much is true, I suppose, however I think that Macron’s next decision—if he gets the ‘no majority’ result he is banking on—will be to appoint a ‘government of woodlice’. That is, an ‘apolitical’ government of ‘experts’ or technocrats, that would hold the parliamentary fort for a year, allowing Macron to effectively rule by decree.

Over at Politico, two journalists have already imagined such a scenario, one in which Christine Largarde takes the reins:

“PARIS  — It’s September 2024. Christine Lagarde has only been French prime minister for 10 days, and already it feels like months. […] The 68-year-old Lagarde had been President Emmanuel Macron’s last-ditch candidate to form a government as he battled to suppress the post-electoral tumult by borrowing from the Italian playbook and appointing an emergency cabinet of experts.

With no political grouping having won enough votes to form a majority, coalition talks failed repeatedly. Macron hesitated briefly over Lagarde — wondering whether she wasn’t a bigger asset to France at the ECB — but finally plucked her from her job long before her term was to expire in 2027. Ultimately, it made more sense to have a global heavyweight steadying matters in Paris as the French economy teetered on the brink.

This is, of course, fiction … but not so fanciful.”

Read the rest of their article for an explanation of how something like this is not only ‘not so fanciful’, but very possible. Bardella would not, and would be mad to, accept the prime ministership without an absolute majority. Any possibility of a consensus on a broad coalition of ‘moderate’ lawmakers is unlikely to say the least. The economy would indeed be in shambles, and, although they do not mention this, when Le Pen calls him to do so Macron will not resign.

I note that Macron has a history of circumnavigating parliament, most recently when he invoked article 49.3, and the appointment of his own menagerie of technocrat experts is how Macron prefers to rule. It is what he did in 2017 when he appointed France’s most experimental cabinet yet, albeit under normal, not ‘emergency’, circumstances.

The question France now faces is do they want another even more experimental Macron experiment? Because as Politico notes, Macron ‘will be studying every option in the book’.

LS

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